A decade following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the country and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in universities but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. Both writes two essays that seek impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over flags and symbols, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there might be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has got important lessons to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
